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Falcons-Packers Showdown Strategy TNF Week 3 DFS Picks | NFL DFS Strategy

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00:01

Hey, good morning. Welcome. Little early

00:05

show today. Uh facilitating Josh's

00:08

schedule, which is fine. We used to

00:10

actually we used to do the showdown

00:12

strategy show early at nine o'clock

00:15

every t every day of the year that we

00:17

had these. And personally late,

00:19

>> I like that. I I prefer the nine

00:21

o'clocks, dude. I'm I'm a fan.

00:24

>> I'm way more early than late. I like Let

00:27

me get it done. I mean, I'm I'm the

00:29

dumbass that was running a 6:30 a.m.

00:31

stream for like three years.

00:32

>> Oh, the pro the process. Yeah, that's

00:35

right. I remember. And people tuned in.

00:38

But also, it's early in the day, so it's

00:41

like you have shelf life anyway. Even

00:43

even if you don't like even if you're

00:45

not watching live, it doesn't really

00:46

matter. So,

00:48

>> no, not at all.

00:49

>> We're dialed in.

00:50

>> We didn't really realize that for a long

00:52

time. Uh

00:53

>> yeah,

00:54

>> but now it's just like, yeah, it doesn't

00:57

that doesn't matter. Anyway,

00:59

>> yeah, like when when Matt Gajeski and I

01:01

and Alex Brown used to do it. Those guys

01:04

are on central time, so they'd be doing

01:05

8 a.m. shows. I'd be doing 9:00 a.m.

01:08

shows. But, um, good morning to all of

01:10

you. Hope you're having a wonderful day.

01:12

>> Can I just break in here? I miss AB.

01:14

>> I know, dude. I was I was actually

01:16

thinking about hitting him up the other

01:17

day. I was gonna ask We had a

01:19

conversation one time about like

01:22

Chicago.

01:23

>> No, he's not. He's in Florida, right?

01:25

>> He is. Yeah, you're right. You're right.

01:26

Yeah. Uh, oh no. So he was on My Time.

01:29

He was on My Time actually. I think he

01:31

had a place in Chicago. I feel like he

01:33

went back.

01:33

>> He was doing Chicago stuff. So he was

01:35

probably in

01:36

>> Oh yeah, he was doing Bears like pre and

01:38

postgame shows. That's right. Yeah. So

01:40

>> I think like daytoday he lived in

01:42

Florida if I remember correctly.

01:44

>> Then he Wait a second. Then he will be

01:46

in Chicago.

01:47

>> Oh, maybe. Yeah, that'd be sick if we

01:49

could loop up.

01:51

>> I might hit him up. I remember having

01:52

this conversation. He he he was telling

01:55

me how he still had a manual toothbrush

01:57

and I was like, "You gota you gotta

01:58

switch to the electric toothbrush,

01:59

brother."

02:00

>> Yeah.

02:01

>> It could change your life. And he's

02:02

>> I couldn't even imagine like using a

02:04

manual toothbrush now. That just feels

02:06

crazy.

02:07

>> Yeah. Yeah. It's um it's just ca caveman

02:11

style.

02:12

>> Yeah.

02:13

>> I know.

02:16

I haven't had a manual. I couldn't even

02:18

tell you how long.

02:18

>> But I will say I'm still very I'm still

02:22

very unskilled at flossing. So, I'm a

02:24

floss pick guy. I buy bags of floss

02:26

picks and I just hit the picks.

02:28

>> I can't

02:29

>> wait. Bag like this.

02:32

>> Yeah, dude. I mean, those are so much

02:34

better.

02:34

>> [ __ ] everywhere in my house. Th

02:36

>> They're so much better than having to

02:37

wrap it around your fingers and [ __ ] and

02:39

get my huge hands in there just

02:41

>> wrapping it around my neck.

02:47

>> Hopefully you guys are having a great

02:48

morning. This is the Showdown Strategy

02:51

Show right here on the Stacastic YouTube

02:53

channel. Yeah, we're one more time for

02:55

those of you guys jumping in a couple

02:56

minutes late. We're starting early, one

02:58

hour early. Same show as always. We got

03:00

everything lined up for you. Uh Josh has

03:02

something to do a little bit later

03:03

today. And uh instead of not doing this,

03:05

we figured let's get it out early. Uh if

03:08

you don't mind the tone for your sins

03:09

this fine morning, hit the thumbs up,

03:11

subscribe, it's free. And uh let me know

03:13

what type of build you're going with

03:14

down below in the comments because

03:16

you've got a very weird game today. I

03:19

said this yesterday on the single lineup

03:20

show though, Josh. I am If you were to

03:23

ask me and and I'll say this anytime if

03:26

you were to ask me, would you rather

03:27

have a showdown slate where you have

03:30

like two marquee teams with big names

03:32

and you're paying 10K plus for like six

03:35

different players or would you rather

03:37

have this kind of garbage type game

03:40

where you've got the Falcons who have

03:43

the worst offense so far in football?

03:45

We'll talk about Michael Penn. And then

03:47

you have the Packers who have literally

03:48

the worst offensive line in football. 10

03:52

times out of 10, I want the grimy game

03:55

on Thursday or Monday night. I think

03:57

from a DFS perspective, a showdown

03:59

perspective, they're better. And I've

04:01

always had more success with these type

04:03

of garbage games. I don't know why, but

04:05

that's the way it is.

04:07

I would much rather have a a game that

04:12

really feels random in No, not random,

04:15

but like I want the chaos in a game like

04:18

this. I'm in complete agreement with

04:20

you. Like obviously, yeah, it's better

04:22

if you're getting like, you know, the

04:24

two best teams in the league playing

04:26

each other and like you can sit down and

04:28

watch a good game. That's great, but

04:31

it's usually not as fun of a DFS

04:33

experience, barring something weird

04:35

happening. Whereas today, there's a lot

04:38

more chaos from top to bottom that

04:39

allows for like a much more unique

04:42

roster construction. There's not a lot

04:44

of things here where it there's no I

04:46

mean, Bejian is certainly to a degree,

04:48

but like it doesn't feel the same that

04:51

it has for the first two weeks. This

04:53

feels like a different lineup

04:54

construction across the board.

04:56

>> Yeah. And you you think about so far all

04:59

of the games that we've had in prime

05:01

time like even even Dallas and Giants

05:04

you still had an expensive Lamb, Dak

05:07

Prescott, right? Like George Pickins,

05:09

Jackson Dart, Malik Neighbors, all the

05:12

but now you're right outside of Bejon.

05:15

Well, the the interesting thing is how

05:16

big of a difference does Michael Penn

05:18

make? And here here's my thoughts on

05:20

this one. Is Michael Pennix going to

05:23

save the Falcons season? No, he's not

05:25

going to save their season. And I don't

05:27

think anyone's under any illusion that

05:29

they will. However,

05:31

you cannot you you can't be worse than

05:34

Cooper Rush and Jack Sh.

05:36

>> It does it doesn't actually get worse

05:38

than that. It's it's impossible to be

05:40

worse than we saw those guys play. Um

05:43

they they don't dude, how about this?

05:46

They don't have a single snap in the red

05:48

zone through two weeks. That's how bad

05:50

this team has been. Not a snap in the

05:52

red zone. Cooper Rush's first play from

05:55

scrimmage last week. scrambles and

05:57

fumbles, throws two more picks. Jack

06:00

Strang comes in, his first pass attempt

06:02

is a pick six. So, across the board,

06:06

it's bad. And yeah, you're right. Bean

06:08

deservedly expensive. This guy is so

06:12

good. Maybe the best in the league. But

06:14

then Jordan Love, Christian Watson,

06:17

Michael Pennix Jr., London sub 9K in the

06:20

flex now because, well, no one can throw

06:22

him the ball. And you got a guy like

06:24

Michael Pittz who closed out last year

06:27

really really well 6600 because once

06:30

again you know how the DraftKings

06:32

pricing algorithm works if no one's

06:34

playing them and they're not performing.

06:36

Like I don't know exactly how it works

06:37

but we know that ownership plays into it

06:39

including performance. Well, they

06:41

haven't performed. No.

06:43

>> I'm going to say something kind of dumb

06:44

here but I just it feels like he's just

06:47

been around forever in our industry. Has

06:51

Kyle Pittz been around so long that he

06:53

became Kyle Pitt's senior?

06:56

>> Yeah, he was not Kyle Pitts. Well, the

06:57

funny thing is he hasn't He's only in

06:59

like his what, fourth or fifth year?

07:01

>> I just feel like he's been the dude that

07:03

everybody in our industry has talked

07:04

about before started for so long that I

07:07

I can't remember how long he's been

07:09

here. So much so that I was just like,

07:10

"Oh my god, did he have a Kyle?" Like,

07:12

he's already become a senior since he's

07:14

been doing this [ __ ]

07:17

>> Yes, that's true. Oh yeah. Also, this is

07:20

actually

07:20

>> he started as Kyle Pittz Jr.

07:23

>> 20.

07:24

>> I know.

07:26

This is 2021.

07:28

2020. So, this is his sixth season.

07:30

>> That's crazy.

07:32

>> Everything blends Everything blends

07:34

together for me.

07:35

>> It really, dude. I feel like it he's

07:37

simultaneously in his second year and

07:39

he's,

07:40

you know, Grunk.

07:43

>> Yeah, pretty much. Pretty much. All

07:46

right. You ready to dive into this one?

07:49

I am. One last thing. I don't know if

07:50

you saw this. You probably haven't. This

07:52

is not NFL related. Uh, this will be

07:54

quick. Uh, did you see the Greg Papovich

07:56

news today? And

07:58

>> yeah, he's he's marrying like uh he's

08:02

marrying Coach Bud's ex-wife.

08:04

>> That's crazy.

08:06

>> Who came up under Pop? I guess Pop

08:09

>> Coach Bud is in his like Coach Bud is

08:11

like the first rung of Pop's or of like

08:13

Pop's coaching tree and coach and like

08:17

Pop is not in great shape.

08:20

>> No, but now he's he's married to Coach

08:22

Bud's ex-wife.

08:23

>> Yeah. Hasn't he had like multiple health

08:26

scares and issues?

08:27

>> He he had like a real bad stroke if I

08:29

remember. I think it was a stroke if I

08:30

remember.

08:30

>> Is he just a scumbag?

08:33

>> I don't know what the I mean like his

08:34

wife died and like you know who knows.

08:37

Oh, so he was widowed.

08:39

>> Yes,

08:41

>> we'll give him a pass.

08:42

>> A couple a couple years ago.

08:43

>> We'll give him

08:44

>> and then he had the strokes if I if I'm

08:45

if I'm remembering that order of

08:47

operations correctly. But yeah, uh

08:48

that's a wild one.

08:50

>> So it's Ben Holtzer's ex-wife.

08:52

>> Yeah. Now they've been they've been

08:53

married or they've been divorced for

08:55

like 10 plus years. So it's not like,

08:57

you know, they split up last week.

08:59

>> I mean, there's a lot of fish in the

09:00

sea, though. It's still kind of weird.

09:01

But I guess the heart wants what the

09:03

heart want

09:04

>> evidently. Sorry. All right. I just had

09:06

I saw it last night and I I needed to

09:08

have some words to talk about that on a

09:10

show.

09:11

>> All right. Yeah, it is actually insane.

09:14

So, here's what we've got, right?

09:17

>> Falcons

09:19

here. Here's the one thing that this is

09:21

this should this should shock not shock,

09:23

but this should come as at least a

09:26

reminder to everyone who comes into

09:28

these games just immediately being like,

09:30

"Oh, Falcons are terrible. Smash Packers

09:35

51. See the first profit already said

09:37

Packers 5-1. You see on the screen,

09:41

dude, this opened at seven. Seven. Okay.

09:45

Now, of course, that was still before we

09:46

knew Pennix was coming back. Then it

09:48

moved to five and a half yesterday. Now

09:51

it's at 4 and a half, dude. So, it moved

09:53

through seven. It moved through six. And

09:56

now it's sitting at 4 and a half with a

09:59

43 and a half point total. But before we

10:03

get into any of the actual plays, you

10:05

can't ignore the fact that a seven to

10:09

four and a half is a pretty big swing in

10:11

a game like this on short rest. I really

10:14

think a lot of it sure has to do with

10:16

Michael Penn just impossible to be bad

10:19

or as worse as what we saw. But the

10:22

Packers offensive line has been so bad

10:24

and they're even more injured now that

10:26

if you we've learned in football if you

10:28

don't have a line that can block you

10:30

kind of nothing matters.

10:33

>> That's a wild move though.

10:35

>> Yeah, it's a big it's a big move, dude.

10:37

It's a really big move.

10:41

>> I'm looking through it now.

10:44

Like I mean it's it's like to move

10:46

through key numbers too is wild.

10:50

>> Yeah. And it's not like Pennix is coming

10:52

in as

10:56

someone with like real name value like

10:58

>> No. And he's coming off

11:01

>> like

11:01

>> but fresh off an ACL.

11:04

>> Yeah. Yeah. This is

11:06

it's new for like right now coming back

11:09

from an injury.

11:11

>> Yeah. It's it's not it's not like Dak

11:14

Prescott coming in for Cooper Rush when

11:16

Cooper Rush was their backup. That's not

11:18

It's a very different situation.

11:23

>> Michael Pennix wasn't going to be the

11:24

starter this year. Think of it like

11:26

that. He wasn't even going to be the

11:28

starter. It was Tua.

11:30

>> Do you So, what do you make of that line

11:33

movement then?

11:34

>> That that the Packers offensively

11:39

um I mean it's it's any given week,

11:42

right? but that that the offensive line

11:44

is is so bad that they're going to

11:48

continue to struggle in most games. And

11:50

like you look at the Falcons, a lot of

11:52

the struggles they saw last week, don't

11:54

get me wrong, because the defense wasn't

11:57

great, but they they are also like the

12:01

offense was so bad. It wasn't so much

12:03

that the defense was just so bad that

12:06

that they couldn't do anything. It was

12:08

more so that like here you go, right?

12:11

Packers uh or hold on. Fal Packers

12:13

passing game versus Falcons defense.

12:15

Falcons D um is so far 14th in pass

12:21

defense and pass protection. Packers are

12:24

are terrible. Like look at Packers pass

12:27

protection 31st and I'm pretty sure

12:29

they're actually 32nd. Um they've had

12:33

explosive plays but almost all of those

12:35

came against Minnesota and then

12:37

Minnesota still won that. Another thing

12:39

too, Josh, look, Pack, here's another

12:41

big one. Packers run game, they've

12:43

manufactured nothing on the ground, 32nd

12:46

in run in run offense, and the Falcons

12:49

run defense has actually been pretty

12:51

good. So, if you look at advantages,

12:53

both teams have advantages. It just

12:55

doesn't look like the Packers have a

12:57

sevenpoint advantage.

13:00

>> 30 Atlanta dead last in offensive EPA

13:05

per play, right?

13:06

>> Green base. Now, that's Cooper Rush,

13:08

though.

13:08

>> Yeah. Yeah, sure. 31st and 32nd in

13:11

success rate. So, the two worst teams in

13:14

the NFL offensively in success rate.

13:17

>> Uh, pressure rate allowed for Green Bay,

13:20

30th.

13:22

I mean, it's just it's a sea of bad red

13:25

numbers. Yeah.

13:26

>> In these offensive marks.

13:27

>> Yeah,

13:27

>> it'll be terrible. Like, yeah, I mean,

13:29

you said it sort of best from the

13:31

beginning of the show. Like,

13:34

uh, no matter what you think of PennX

13:36

coming into this, it can't be any worse

13:38

than being the worst [ __ ] offense so

13:40

far.

13:40

>> Exactly. It's It's actually an upgrade.

13:43

Look, here's his stats. 22 for 39, less

13:47

than six yards per attempt, one

13:48

touchdown, and that was to Bejon. It was

13:51

just a layup. Four interceptions, sub

13:54

five yard a dot because it's all going

13:57

to Bejon.

13:58

So yeah, it's it's terrible, man. It's

14:00

it's really bad. And while you could say

14:03

what you want about Michael Penn Jr. and

14:05

you see his 2025 stats, still a massive

14:09

upgrade, right? A massive upgrade. He

14:11

was actually willing to throw down field

14:13

a little bit. He could actually complete

14:15

some deep passes. I'm going to get into

14:18

the data hub right now so we can look at

14:20

all of this. But the one thing I want to

14:22

say to anybody watching and to you too,

14:25

if you think about Drake London and Kyle

14:28

Pittz, they were not just neutered, but

14:31

with Cooper Rush and the offense, they

14:33

were taken out of the offense because he

14:36

couldn't throw more than five yards

14:37

downfield. At least Pennix can do that.

14:40

>> Yeah. I mean, Kyle Pittz has four

14:42

targets.

14:43

>> Yeah. Right.

14:45

It's all Bejon because Cooper Rush was

14:48

afraid to throw and when he did, he got

14:50

picked off. So, it's still a big

14:52

upgrade. There's no doubt.

14:53

>> Austin Cooper has as many targets.

14:56

>> Yeah, I know. I know. And I don't think

15:00

that's the fault of Kyle Pittz.

15:02

>> No.

15:02

>> Eric, can we look into Green Bay running

15:04

back situation because I have no clue

15:05

what's who's going to get the reps. Oh,

15:07

yeah. We're going to we're doing all of

15:08

that right now, brother.

15:10

>> So, here we go. You have the data hub. I

15:12

did run the Sims as well. We'll get into

15:14

our exposures in just a second, but the

15:17

first thing that to talk about here,

15:19

you're talking quarterback

15:21

cap. Look at this. So, optimal captain

15:24

or captain ownership, you have Jordan

15:26

Love at 14%, Michael Penn Jr. at 4%.

15:31

Optimal captain, Jordan Love 10%,

15:33

Michael Penn at two. So, Jordan Love

15:36

actually negatively leveraged here in

15:38

the captain spot. If you look at uh all

15:42

of these positions, your optimal captain

15:44

is Bejian Robinson 30% of the time.

15:47

That's only one of the numbers, Josh.

15:49

The other number is that he has 26 right

15:53

now projected percent captain ownership.

15:56

4 and a.5% positive leverage on a guy

15:58

that is almost $12,000 and way more than

16:01

that a captain. It just goes to show you

16:03

what type of an impact he has. Going to

16:05

be hard to get away from him today. But

16:08

the fact that London and Pitts are so

16:10

much cheaper than they should be with

16:12

even semicompetent quarterback play

16:15

definitely has me interested in them as

16:17

well.

16:18

>> Yeah, Bejan looks like very clearly the

16:19

best play that you can get to and also

16:21

like the most fascinating guy to just

16:23

not put in the lineup if you need to.

16:25

It's weird weird. You don't typically

16:28

see a guy be $1,800 more expensive than

16:30

the next most expensive guy in the game

16:34

and he's still underowned at captain.

16:36

>> Exactly. You don't see that. But then

16:38

you leave him out because he's currently

16:40

projected to be in 78% of lineups. It's

16:44

like, okay, I've got Pennix, Pitts,

16:47

someone else from the Atlanta offense,

16:49

maybe Falcons D, and all of a sudden

16:51

you've got a very unique lineup and, you

16:54

know, 40% of the time it's probably

16:56

decent.

16:57

>> So here's my thing is that we actually

17:01

right now have Bejon as a better captain

17:05

play than a flex play. Yeah.

17:08

>> You know what I mean? Like that to me is

17:11

the is the big thing here. It doesn't

17:12

mean he's a bad flex player. His optimal

17:14

is right around where his ownership is.

17:16

But my guess and I'll I'll show you guys

17:18

right now. We won't bury the lead here.

17:20

Let's see. At flex, we have 39% Bejian

17:25

and a captain. There you go. 49. So

17:27

dude, we're 2x the field on Bejian at

17:29

captain right now. Are do are you fine

17:32

with that? getting 2x the field on Bejon

17:34

at captain and a little underweight at

17:35

flex.

17:37

>> Yeah, I mean if it's going to happen

17:39

it's it's going to be that way where

17:41

he's either amazing and he is the

17:43

captain dude or I'm going to play the

17:46

salary game and

17:49

he needs so much to get into a flex spot

17:54

at 118 that if I'm trimming it anywhere,

17:56

it's certainly at the flex.

17:58

>> Yeah, exactly. I like the way that that

17:59

is coming together.

18:00

>> And you're still getting what? 80% no

18:03

90% Beijon. What do we have? 39% at

18:07

Flex. Yeah, you're getting 90% Beijon

18:11

altogether. What's interesting to me

18:13

though, and this is like this is where

18:16

my head went before I I haven't looked

18:18

at exposures. This is my first exposure

18:20

to our exposures right now. I didn't I

18:24

didn't know what our London and Pitts

18:26

exposure would look like a captain, but

18:29

sure enough, they are second and fourth

18:32

in exposure and we are not a ton, but we

18:34

are a little bit overweight to those

18:36

guys and I think that just has to do

18:38

with the value there that they should be

18:41

more expensive on a showdown site.

18:44

>> Yeah, I think the path looks pretty

18:46

clean to London captain, Penn's captain,

18:50

Pitts captain.

18:52

Uh, this won't be a fun thing to say out

18:54

loud, but like Nick Faulk is mildly

18:58

interesting to me if the offense can't

19:01

totally get it done, but you're just

19:03

launching up a bunch of 40 yard field

19:05

goals.

19:05

>> I think I actually think so for sure.

19:08

Yeah,

19:10

we we've seen this stuff win before.

19:13

>> Yeah.

19:14

>> And some of these teams live between the

19:16

the 20s, the 30s, right? like they just

19:19

they can get in the range and then they

19:21

stall. The Packers have a good defense.

19:24

It's actually not the craziest thought

19:25

in the world.

19:27

>> I mean, you could just get done telling

19:29

me that like they don't do they haven't

19:30

done anything in the red zone yet.

19:32

>> Exactly.

19:32

>> Good. Good if you're taking the kicker.

19:34

>> Yeah. I mean, different quarterback, but

19:36

still not We talked about it. He's

19:39

coming off an ACL. You don't know what

19:40

you're going to get out of someone like

19:42

him. Um the and and the other thing too

19:44

is Stephen asked so human psychology

19:47

will people trim Bejon a little after

19:49

being burned last week? Uh I don't think

19:51

so at all. If this were a main slate

19:55

like a 12 13 game main slate very

19:57

possible. Yes. And I think Bejian might

20:00

look really really good. Um it's a

20:03

oneame slate Stephen. So what are you

20:06

trimming him to? What's what are you

20:08

pivoting on? projected for five more

20:10

fantasy points than anybody else on the

20:13

day and that includes quarterbacks.

20:16

>> Yeah, that's a crazy that's crazy.

20:18

>> Yeah, he is. Yeah,

20:19

>> it's real tough. It's just so much dump

20:21

off [ __ ] that you just accumulate points

20:24

by default.

20:25

>> Like it's it feels like McCaffrey where

20:28

it's just like he's just gonna be

20:30

involved.

20:31

>> Exactly. And you're just so good. It's

20:35

not like a middle-of the road guy who

20:38

you're just jamming opportunities to

20:40

because you don't have alternatives.

20:42

With a guy like Bejan, the idea is he is

20:45

so good that we need to get him the

20:47

ball. It's not well just get him because

20:49

there's nobody else. And

20:51

>> yeah,

20:51

>> yeah, I I think that's pretty

20:53

significant.

20:57

>> 118 $1,800 more than Jordan Love and

21:02

five more fantasy points. Well, I know.

21:05

Well, what what I wanted to see is what

21:07

do our Bejon captain lineups look like?

21:10

And I bet they're not bad because you

21:13

just mentioned, yeah, he's 118, but what

21:16

about some of these other guys? Like

21:17

even a captain, he's 17-7 in the flex

21:20

though, you don't have anyone. Jordan

21:23

loves 10k flat. Christian Watson's 98,

21:26

Pennix is nine flat. London's sub 9K.

21:30

And then you have to get through. So to

21:32

a Tiga Valoa, you don't have to worry

21:34

about him. Josh Jacobs, don't have to

21:36

worry about him. Or Jack Strand or

21:38

Cooper Rush. You have to come all the

21:40

way down to $7,800

21:42

to get the next, when I say viable

21:44

player, I don't mean a guy that you want

21:46

to play. I mean the next guy that's even

21:48

going to be on the field. And that's

21:51

below $8,000. Lloyd's 74, Craft is 7K,

21:55

Pitts is 6600. You don't, this is not a

21:58

slate where it's like, okay, well, I got

22:00

Bejon. Now, how do I fit Cidi Lamb and

22:03

Dak and Pickins and Javvante Williams?

22:05

It doesn't exist. That's not happening

22:07

on this slate.

22:08

>> I'm not looking at the exposures of your

22:10

sim right now. Like, they're on my

22:11

screen, but I haven't looked. Are we

22:13

getting Charlie Werner?

22:16

>> Well, on the screen with like a really

22:18

big number.

22:19

>> Funny you'd say that because the highest

22:22

sim lineup that we have now, I don't

22:25

know how much we're getting of him. I

22:27

will check.

22:33

Wait, hold on. What are these?

22:35

>> W E.

22:36

>> No, I know. For some reason,

22:40

it like auto filters to captain

22:42

sometimes. Yeah, we're getting 7%

22:45

>> Charlie Warner at captain or at flex.

22:48

Sorry.

22:49

>> Okay, I was gonna say at flex. My fault.

22:51

My fault.

22:53

>> I thought it was going to be more than

22:54

that in the flex, but when you told me

22:56

that that was the captain, I felt quite

22:58

different. But clearly that's

22:59

>> yeah that'd be yeah that like be 50% at

23:02

flex but our highest simmed lineup. So

23:04

you run these sims these sims tens of

23:06

thousands of times. I thought you did a

23:08

great job explaining this last week or

23:10

the other week about how these sims work

23:13

and and what makes them a positive sim

23:15

ROI. If you guys have questions on that

23:17

happy to answer them again.

23:19

>> Yeah.

23:19

>> But the highest sim one has Charlie

23:23

Warner. It is Bejon, Charlie Warner,

23:26

Christian Watson, Falcons defense,

23:29

Jordan Love, and Matthew Golden. Not

23:31

going to lie, that's not a bad lineup at

23:34

all.

23:35

>> No, not a problem with that one bit.

23:38

>> I mean, you think about it, you still

23:40

have

23:42

think of Okay, so when we're talking

23:44

about is it is Bejian Robinson at

23:47

captain pro makes anything prohibitive?

23:50

Well, if I told you that we were able to

23:52

get the number one and number two

23:54

receiver for the Packers on the other

23:56

side of this this lineup with their

23:58

quarterback and Jordan Love, well, no,

24:01

it's not hard at all.

24:04

I do I do hate the bike. It is an

24:08

interesting combination between like

24:12

Wernern and Hooper.

24:15

Hooper is way more expensive, not

24:17

getting any real love,

24:22

and Charlie Warner really you just you

24:25

need. So I I would I have thoughts on

24:28

this and I've I've I've discussed this a

24:30

lot. Uh Big K, that's a bad lineup, bro.

24:33

I'll tell you what, BK. If

24:37

Okay, so mainly because Falcons defense

24:39

that's the problem with a lot of

24:40

people's thinking when it comes to to to

24:43

showdown slates. you're playing a large

24:45

field showdown slate. When you look at

24:47

something and you assume it's a bad

24:49

lineup, a lot of times it isn't. Um, in

24:52

a low-scoring game like this, 43 and a

24:54

half point total and the Packers having

24:58

the worst offensive line in football and

25:00

just lost two more starters on the line.

25:03

The idea that the Packers could not have

25:05

the idea that the Packers could have a

25:07

defensive touchdown or or five sacks or

25:10

interceptions and Jordan Love could

25:12

still get there with a double. Uh yeah,

25:14

that's very very very possible in a spot

25:18

like this. Uh playing defenses against

25:20

the other players in showdown sites is

25:23

not a bad idea, even though it looks

25:25

like it.

25:26

>> Yeah. Like all it takes is somebody to

25:28

take a punk to the house or a kick to

25:29

the house that has nothing to do with

25:31

anything and it's like, oh [ __ ] they're

25:33

already at six.

25:34

>> Yeah. Well, and you have to think about

25:36

this in a lowscoring environment. That's

25:39

assuming it's g we can't guarantee it's

25:41

going to be a low-scoring game, but in a

25:43

low-scoring environment, it's even more

25:45

likely for something for something such

25:47

as that to happen. And

25:49

>> yeah, you need a lot less points from an

25:50

individual roster spot at that point.

25:52

You don't need your defense to have 27

25:54

if the final score of the game is 1812.

25:57

>> Like if the Falcons today,

26:00

>> let's say the Falcons gave you eight,

26:02

Josh, right? Falcons give you eight

26:04

today,

26:05

>> which is is not great, but it's not bad.

26:09

>> But at 3,400, eight is more than you get

26:13

from probably anybody in that range most

26:15

of the time, right?

26:17

>> Well, the Vikings in week one had eight

26:20

fantasy points. And I you don't have to

26:22

be like, well, Brian Flores isn't the

26:24

coord. It doesn't matter. It's a oneame

26:25

slate. They had eight against the

26:27

Packers in week one. Guess who was in

26:30

most of the winning lineups? Jordan Love

26:33

with Golden and with with Christian

26:36

Watson or just Jordan Love and and

26:39

Christian Watson. So,

26:40

>> I'm not saying that the Vikings were in

26:42

the optimal, but they still finished

26:44

with eight. And the guy going up against

26:46

them who's going out there today also

26:49

had a dominant game and Christian Watson

26:51

scored twice and they ended up being in

26:53

winning lineups. Yeah, so much of it

26:55

just comes down to like,

26:58

you know, how many touchdowns actually

26:59

got scored? How many guys got tackled on

27:01

the one instead of

27:03

>> Yeah.

27:03

>> got into the end zone. And now the

27:05

overall score isn't getting these guys

27:08

six on six on six. It's three to the

27:11

kicker, three to the kicker. And all of

27:12

a sudden, those defensive numbers just

27:15

become more and more valuable at a what

27:17

$3400 price tag for the Falcons D. Like

27:20

that is about as cheap as anybody on

27:22

this slate is today.

27:24

>> It's also it's like BKG says it would

27:27

rather Brian Robinson Jr. or Alamay

27:30

Zakius than that crazy build.

27:34

If you're if you're playing large field

27:35

tournaments on showdowns,

27:38

crazy builds

27:40

can win um and do win a lot. This lineup

27:44

probably doesn't win. I mean, you can

27:45

almost assuredly say that this lineup

27:48

isn't going to win because there's what?

27:51

Hundreds of thousands, millions of

27:53

combinations.

27:54

>> Yeah, hundreds of thousands, I guess.

27:56

But,

27:58

>> I mean, like, of like real lineups or

28:00

like lineups that can I mean, you know,

28:02

you can get to a crazy amount of lineups

28:04

if you're willing to just use anybody

28:06

anywhere,

28:07

>> right? But there's a lot of

28:08

combinations. We'll put it like that.

28:10

>> Yeah.

28:12

>> Yeah. Exactly. But that's what I'm

28:14

saying. Packers are getting sacked three

28:15

and a half times per game so far.

28:16

Assuming my quick look up is correct.

28:19

Look, I'm not saying I love the Falcons

28:21

at all. This isn't a

28:22

>> There's a reason they're 15% owned.

28:24

>> Yeah, it's it's really just the fact

28:26

that there are going to be spots that

28:29

may not look good to the casual observer

28:32

that actually make sense. The second

28:34

build is Kyle Pittz, Bejan, Drake

28:37

London, Falcons, Michael Penn Jr., and

28:40

Packers defense. Now, that to me, like

28:42

if you wanted to say there's a crazy

28:44

build that you might want to get away

28:45

from, fine. A 51 with a Packers defense,

28:50

you could you could convince me that,

28:52

you know, that's not my favorite build.

28:55

>> Yeah,

28:55

>> for sure. But the other one isn't really

28:58

all that crazy because it's a it's a 33.

29:02

Here's a Green Bay 51, Josh, with Bejon

29:05

at captain. No issues with that either.

29:09

No, I can. I'm looking at the screen

29:11

now, so we're looking at I was trying to

29:13

avoid seeing any of it to like get my

29:16

thoughts out before it was like, "Oh,

29:17

yeah, that guy is 40% positively

29:19

leveraged. Why Why don't you like him?"

29:21

But, um, I mean, I really do like that

29:25

first lineup a lot. I don't love the

29:27

second one nearly as much, but again,

29:29

you're leaving $2,100 on the table.

29:32

>> You're probably entering that lineup and

29:33

not having anybody join you. At least

29:36

>> I cannot imagine that's duped a single

29:38

time across every DraftKings contest.

29:41

>> It'll just be I'll have that lineup and

29:43

I'll be duped with Alex.

29:45

>> Yeah, right.

29:49

Sam, people don't understand three sacks

29:52

and an interception are more than enough

29:53

to be optimal in a 1712 loss. Well,

29:56

yeah, and exactly. Maybe the Packers

29:58

figure something out in the offensive

30:00

line and Atlanta's defense is trash. But

30:02

Atlanta's defense in week one really

30:04

wasn't even that bad. The only reason

30:06

they lost was because TJ Watt picked six

30:09

Cooper Rush. Cooper Rush was the best

30:12

offensive player for the Steelers that

30:15

game. Um, but going back to the Charlie

30:17

Warner thing that you had asked about,

30:20

the reason I don't mind going to guys

30:22

like Warner in spots like this, and I I

30:25

much prefer it over like a Bills Lions

30:28

game with a 53 and a half point total,

30:31

is because if he were to have one for

30:34

seven and a touchdown today, that could

30:36

clearly be optimal. It's really hard to

30:39

do even at that cheap price point. It's

30:42

really hard to do that and be optimal in

30:43

a game that ends up scoring 60 points.

30:46

>> Yeah. You just might end up with too

30:48

many other dudes having more raw points.

30:50

>> Exactly.

30:52

>> Yeah.

30:53

>> When you can start bunching those

30:54

together, then you start grabbing

30:56

individual guys from like different

30:58

salary tiers that you didn't think could

31:00

get in that build. But once everybody

31:02

has, you know, there's eight guys that

31:03

have 15 fantasy points, it doesn't

31:05

matter how good that value is typically,

31:07

unless it's all the top dudes. Bejon's

31:10

got two TDs and you know London has you

31:14

know nine catches for 100 and then all

31:16

of a sudden you're sneaking that six

31:18

point dude in at 600 bucks

31:21

>> right so you paid up for all of the

31:23

premier players those are the only guys

31:26

that do anything and he sneaks in a

31:28

six-y touchdown yes

31:30

>> yeah but the moment you start getting

31:32

like good performances from I'm just

31:34

picking names in the bottom here Dodson

31:37

Moore Brian and Robinson Jr. Zakay like

31:40

if those are the guys that are sneaking

31:42

in for all those touchdown then they're

31:44

just pulling from each other

31:45

>> or even big per like solid performances

31:48

from the defense and kickers.

31:50

>> Oh yeah for Yeah. I mean all it you

31:52

start getting 250 you get a 40 and a 50

31:54

yard field goal and you're really in

31:56

trouble with that kicker at that point.

31:57

>> Exactly. Yeah.

31:59

>> Nine plus any touchdowns like it gets

32:01

scary then

32:01

>> big. Yeah. Has there been a lineup that

32:03

won with a player not scoring a fantasy

32:05

point in a weird Oh yeah. A lot of times

32:07

actually

32:08

>> I think last week somebody I saw

32:10

somebody with a screenshot with a zero.

32:11

[ __ ] Who were uh was it Frank or kid

32:14

that I think I saw somebody with a

32:15

screenshot with a zero and he won?

32:17

>> Oh winner figures or something. Yeah.

32:19

>> Wow. And that would be a game I would

32:21

not expect that to happen.

32:23

>> And that could have been like a a high

32:24

dollar contest, you know, smaller [ __ ]

32:27

It was like the big big but

32:28

>> but it might might have also been like

32:30

what you're saying where they had Allen

32:31

Gibbs St. Brown, you know, like concaid

32:35

and then they just

32:38

got a zero. So, it's possible. Um, one

32:41

thing I want to look at here, and before

32:43

we do, should point out that, you know,

32:45

if you're not using the Sims yet, today

32:47

is a good day to do it. Even if you grab

32:49

a weekly, you're getting Thursday,

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you're getting Sunday main afternoon

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getting Monday Night Football, and

32:59

you're getting Thursday Night Football

33:00

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33:03

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>> Well, the bonuses are good, too. Onyx is

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We got you covered. Join the Discord.

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Hit us up if you have any questions. And

35:51

uh let's see some stcastic avatars at

35:53

the top, man.

35:54

>> Hey, there's a bonus uh showdown next

35:56

week. We got our first international

35:59

game. Colts Commanders 9:30 a.m. next

36:02

week on Sunday.

36:03

>> Who in Commanders?

36:05

>> Uh Colts Redskins. Sorry I if that was

36:07

tough to if you didn't hear me there

36:09

correctly. No, I I didn't.

36:11

>> Oh, yeah. So, that's a dog [ __ ] game at

36:14

9:30 a.m. on next Sunday.

36:17

>> That sucks cuz it would have been good

36:19

with Jaden Daniels.

36:20

>> I don't want to talk to his I don't want

36:22

to talk about it.

36:25

>> Yeah,

36:25

>> that looked gnarly, man.

36:28

>> Second time it's happened in a year,

36:30

too.

36:31

>> Rough sucks for

36:32

>> It's the worst. That's Last week was

36:34

tough for like liking the NFL. It's just

36:37

we're everybody just every [ __ ]

36:39

quarterback just gets hurt.

36:41

>> I know. It It sucks.

36:43

>> And the backups are [ __ ] terrible.

36:46

>> It sucks. It's especially because like

36:49

you just said, the backups are so bad

36:52

that there's really just

36:55

there's no way to fix that. It sucks.

36:57

>> Am I just remembering my youth

36:59

differently? Like did it just not h Did

37:01

it happen more then or less then? Like

37:03

is is everybody just too big and strong

37:05

and fast and like you just can't help it

37:08

now? Like we're just going to lose 15

37:10

starter quarterbacks every year.

37:12

>> I think it's just Nah, I don't think so.

37:15

I I don't think so. I mean the their

37:18

their health should be better than it

37:20

ever was. You know, treatment and

37:21

recovery should be better than it ever

37:23

was.

37:24

>> Yeah. But until you get hit by like a

37:25

[ __ ] SUV running across the middle

37:28

and like

37:29

>> I think a lot of it too is that just you

37:31

have I mean a lot of these mobile

37:34

quarterbacks put their body in harm's

37:36

way very not to say that didn't used to

37:38

happen. I don't I don't know. I I feel

37:41

like the offensive line play for a lot

37:43

of these teams has been terrible, but

37:44

Jaden Daniels literally just slipped.

37:47

>> Yeah.

37:48

>> So it's hard to say. I don't know.

37:51

>> All right. I want to go.

37:52

>> It's tough, man. It's tough cuz these

37:53

guys these backups just get trotted out

37:55

here and they're all [ __ ] trash.

37:57

Makes me feel bad. My buddy, you know,

37:59

coming out of college trying to get his

38:01

way be a quarterback, got to the Arena

38:04

League. It's like, now's the time, man.

38:06

They would have took your shitty ass

38:07

immediately nowadays.

38:09

>> You'd have been set, brother.

38:12

>> Bean Robinson, we already know exposure

38:15

there.

38:16

>> Jordan Love 45%.

38:21

Michael Pennix at flex 43%.

38:24

Now, do we have

38:25

>> that's the play, right? That's Pennix

38:26

captain is the probably my favorite play

38:28

of the day.

38:29

>> Oh, a captain.

38:31

>> Yeah, has to be right. He What do we

38:32

have projected for three 4%.

38:35

>> Yeah, we're we're only getting one

38:37

Michael Penn captain lineup.

38:39

>> What if they just win?

38:41

>> Yeah, I know. I mean, it's probably be

38:43

Well, you Here's the thing, though. We

38:46

have we don't have Penn at captain at

38:48

all, but we we have ex we have like se

38:52

quasi exposure to pen at captain because

38:56

we have like 17% between London and

38:59

field uh pits and we're above the field

39:01

on them and really like all of our

39:04

captain exposure outside of Drake London

39:06

is concentrated around Atlanta players.

39:09

So we're not getting to a lot of Pennics

39:11

at captain. Also, it sucks. He doesn't

39:14

really run that much either, and that's

39:17

probably one of the reasons that we're

39:18

not getting to a ton, but it's not like

39:20

we're getting away from the skilled

39:22

players there. So, I'm not surprised to

39:25

see that at Flex because we have so much

39:28

Atlanta at captain that we're getting,

39:31

you know, 43%. Wouldn't be surprised

39:33

when the slate locks if we're well above

39:35

50% at Michael Penn's flex. But it does,

39:39

it does. The one thing that really stood

39:40

out to me is on a day like today, we

39:43

have a decent amount at flex for both

39:46

quarterbacks and a combined 3% at

39:50

captain.

39:52

>> Stephen just dropped it in the chat. I

39:53

think Pennix's rushing prop is like

39:55

three and a half yards.

39:57

>> Oh yeah, dude. Yeah. Yeah, he's uh

40:01

>> Yeah, he's

40:02

>> Penn is 100% a fade at captain. He's

40:05

currently projected for [ __ ] 3%

40:07

ownership. So

40:09

>> yeah, Sam, I said the same thing. This

40:11

is how I open the show. Yeah, prefer I

40:13

prefer these type of bad showdowns to

40:15

good ones for DFS, hands down. I don't

40:17

think the schedule makers had this in

40:19

mind, but

40:21

uh Bejian at 126 for rushing and

40:24

receiving. Dude, he's there. He's That's

40:25

where he is every single week. He was

40:27

even higher in week one. It's

40:29

ridiculous.

40:30

>> Crazy.

40:32

>> For real, though. 10% Penn captain

40:35

doesn't affect your life if you're 150

40:36

maxing, but it's like, okay, cool. I get

40:39

the quarterback of one of the teams

40:42

deal.

40:44

>> Very easy for that to break. Well,

40:46

>> it's it's not a crazy idea at all uh to

40:51

go to Michael Penn at captain. I I like

40:55

London more and I like Pittsmore.

40:58

>> Sure. just because you have Bejon in

41:01

there and you don't have mobility in

41:03

Michael Penn or at least he's unwilling

41:05

to. But I get where you're coming from.

41:08

>> I like I I would agree with the pits

41:10

piece because he is also pretty equally

41:13

unowned and that captain will allow you

41:16

to get to more of the top end at the

41:19

flex.

41:20

>> Real quick, Jojo says they don't train

41:22

the same way in the offseason. Nobody's

41:23

getting hit. So part of that I agree

41:26

with. It's definitely less contact in

41:29

the postseason or in the preseason, but

41:31

it wouldn't have mattered with Jaden

41:33

Daniels. It also wouldn't have mattered

41:35

with Jackson Dart, right? He got

41:37

destroyed because they couldn't block. I

41:40

don't care if you've been taking contact

41:42

for five straight months leading up to

41:44

that game. If you're Jackson Dart and

41:47

you get hit in that situation, your knee

41:49

is just blowing up. Like there's not

41:51

>> Yeah.

41:52

>> I mean, it's it's actually a miracle

41:54

that his knee didn't fully blow up.

41:57

>> Also, you know, maybe it's good long

42:00

term to not be uh practicing like that

42:03

in the offseason so you don't have to

42:04

like glue your teeth back into your

42:06

mouth later in life.

42:07

>> Yeah. I I think there's some spots where

42:09

definitely these guys get banged up

42:11

early and they miss a couple weeks early

42:12

in the year because they're they're not

42:14

pract they're not playing for contact. I

42:17

think some of it is more so just that

42:18

defenses might struggle early on and

42:21

because you're not used to like it's

42:23

just now you're actually in a real

42:24

setting and they don't they don't play a

42:26

lot of guys in the preseason anymore.

42:29

>> I mean, I think I really do think a lot

42:31

of it is sort of like the way baseball

42:35

has gone where everybody in the bullpen

42:38

throws a [ __ ] 105. And now it's just

42:41

like you've got somebody coming from

42:44

everywhere that's essentially more

42:46

athletic than anybody ever used to be.

42:49

Whatever edge somebody's coming from,

42:51

they're better than ever. Somebody's

42:53

coming up from coming through the middle

42:55

and that dude is built like no one had

42:57

ever. And like no matter where you're

42:58

getting it from, you're probably getting

43:00

hit by like an automobile when it

43:02

happens.

43:03

>> It's It's 100% true. Yeah. Even some of

43:06

these corners lay some damaging hits.

43:08

These guys just

43:09

>> Everybody's just different.

43:12

>> And like look, it's always going to be

43:13

happening like that. But in the 90s,

43:15

we'd only had football for like 20 years

43:17

of like real football now.

43:19

>> And you know what else it is to your to

43:20

the point you're making? the speed of

43:22

the game is way faster now. So, these

43:24

guys are stronger. They're they're

43:26

they're they're more athletic and it's

43:28

just way faster. So, when you get popped

43:31

coming across the middle, it's like you

43:33

got hit by a freight train. Yeah.

43:34

>> Yeah. Like everybody's built like

43:37

Lawrence Taylor now.

43:38

>> Mhm.

43:39

>> Not just like, oh, they've got Lawrence

43:40

Taylor.

43:41

>> Yeah.

43:42

>> Taylor, dude, they're freaks.

43:45

All right. Uh, okay. So, here's Flex.

43:49

I I'm actually very on board with our

43:51

exposures right now. This to me looks

43:55

like something I would be like Trey

43:58

Smack. So you've got a a 25% owned

44:00

kicker or exposed kicker, 29% Packers,

44:04

Pitts at 37, Bejian at 39. We have a ton

44:06

of captain Drake London at 40. Falcons

44:10

we have a lot. So, I would probably

44:12

bring per personally

44:14

I have no problem being overweight to

44:17

the Falcons if they're only 15% in flex.

44:20

I I don't really have a ton of interest

44:21

in being almost 3x the field there.

44:24

>> No, they're they're an immediate

44:25

negative 5% ROI boost.

44:27

>> Yeah.

44:28

>> Yeah.

44:28

>> Just like to take it from 42 to like 34

44:31

is just way more comfortable. All right.

44:35

Make it 10.

44:36

>> I did 15. Get him to 33. There you go. I

44:39

mean, if you did a negative 20, you're

44:41

still There you go. You're still 2x the

44:43

field. That's fine for me, right?

44:45

>> Yep. Absolutely.

44:47

>> No issues there. Bring them down a

44:49

little bit. It brings the Green Bay

44:50

kicker up, which I think that's kind of

44:53

I'm Yeah, that that works for me.

44:55

>> If I'm bringing the Falcons defense down

44:56

for that, I want more slightly more of

44:58

Trey Mack.

44:59

>> Yes.

45:00

>> Also,

45:01

>> Golden and Christian Watson are two more

45:04

guys in here that we're getting some of.

45:06

And I already showed you our captain

45:08

exposures. Now, the other thing that we

45:10

should look at here is the running back

45:12

position because a few of you guys

45:14

>> were asking about that. And here's

45:17

here's where the issue lies. You can

45:20

definitely play running backs for the

45:22

Packers side,

45:23

>> but from a projection standpoint, this

45:26

is this might be the biggest disparity

45:28

you'll see all year, Josh. I threw it up

45:30

on the screen between one running back

45:32

on one team to the other running backs

45:34

on the other team. Bejian's at 22.8.

45:38

Lloyd is at 76. Chris Brooks is at 6.7.

45:43

Caleb Johnson is at 6.5. That's just

45:46

absolutely disgusting.

45:48

>> Dude, all three of those guys combined

45:50

are less than Ban.

45:52

>> You're right. Yeah, you're right. They

45:56

are gross. And I I p I made this for you

46:00

guys before the show. So, you look at

46:02

running backs. Brian Robinson's still

46:05

getting some work. That's skewed a bit

46:07

because he got all of the fourth quarter

46:08

work in a blowout last week.

46:11

>> Bean, they just decided what's the

46:13

point, right? But Bejian's been good.

46:17

>> And look look at Green Bay, Josh. Like

46:21

look at look at these Green Bay splits.

46:23

It's disgusting.

46:26

>> I'll tell you this much. If you're

46:27

confident in one of those names,

46:29

congrats.

46:31

You're on an island.

46:33

you're on a big time island. Yeah, I

46:35

think a lot of people would probably

46:37

just say, "Well, give me Marshon Lloyd

46:40

just because he should get, you know,

46:42

more work than the others." But in week

46:45

two, Marshon Lloyd played 16 snaps.

46:48

Chris Brooks played 27. Caleb Johnson

46:51

played 16. That's disgusting. You look

46:54

at opportunity share there. Eight total

46:57

opportunities for Marshon Lloyd in that

46:59

game. Brooks in the same game had six.

47:03

And then Caleb Williams, who or Caleb

47:06

Johnson, sorry,

47:08

who was supposed to be good for the

47:10

Steelers. They let him go after a couple

47:13

years. He had eight as well. So, eight,

47:16

six, and eight for Lloyd, Brooks, and

47:19

Johnson, respectively.

47:21

And they can't block and they can't

47:24

generate anything on the ground. You're

47:26

going to have to hope one of these guys

47:27

falls into the end zone. And that might

47:30

probably doesn't even matter. Marshon

47:32

Lloyd is 7400.

47:34

>> That's a good point. That's a crazy $400

47:36

cheaper than Golden and five fantasy

47:39

points behind him.

47:41

>> Crazy price point.

47:42

>> Even if Lloyd scores, it's got to be

47:44

more like one of those one of Brooks and

47:46

Johnson basically has to like not

47:48

participate

47:51

>> for Lloyd to like really pay have a

47:53

chance to pay off seven. Like he's got

47:54

to break one. And Lloyd's EPA per carry

47:58

>> minus.48.

48:00

Like that

48:02

>> not good, Bob.

48:03

>> That is just not yards after contact per

48:07

attempt. One. One.

48:10

>> He has.

48:12

>> Man, I got some great stats in here. Uh

48:15

I didn't even know all of these were in

48:17

here. One zeros for these morons.

48:19

>> I know. One broken tackle in two games.

48:23

A a lot of this is surely an indictment

48:26

on the offensive line, but does it

48:27

matter? Like, does it it doesn't really

48:29

matter, right? These are the numbers.

48:31

And the Atlanta Falcons have actually

48:34

done a good job stopping the run. That's

48:36

the other thing. The Falcons got their

48:38

their dicks kicked in last week, but

48:41

they still were able to stop the run in

48:43

back-to-back weeks for the most part.

48:45

So, just looking at this, we should

48:48

probably pull up our exposures, right,

48:50

to these guys.

48:53

I mean, I'm running away. I I would want

48:56

zero of Lloyd because of his price tag.

48:58

I just don't know how you pay it off

49:01

given how tumultuous this back field is.

49:05

>> Like 70 7,400 is a crazy number.

49:08

>> It's It's crazy. So, we're not getting

49:10

>> He has to score twice basically or score

49:12

from the other 20

49:13

>> unless he somehow breaks one. But the

49:15

other thing, this guy's been injured so

49:17

much. You want to talk like Kyle Pittz

49:19

was the guy you were saying everyone

49:20

talked about. Marshon Lloyd's another

49:22

one that people have been been hanging

49:25

around waiting for this for a very long

49:27

time. Uh him and Jonathan Brooks and

49:29

Brooks is hurt again. These guys never

49:31

got healthy. It's kind of a shame. It's

49:32

unfortunate but we've never actually

49:35

seen Marshon Lloyd do anything in

49:38

regular season before. It was just hype.

49:41

Maybe and maybe he will end up be being

49:43

good once the offensive line if they

49:45

figure it out. But right now this line's

49:47

so bad. So to your earlier point from

49:50

just a second ago, we're not getting

49:52

zero, but we're at 10%. We're not

49:55

getting overweight or underweight. It's

49:56

basically just like a hedge play there.

49:59

We are, however, getting 20% Brooks at

50:01

Flex and he's 13% field and we're

50:04

getting 21% Caleb Johnson who's 19%

50:08

owned by the field. Really, you're

50:09

right. Why not just go with the guys

50:11

that are $2,000 cheaper and $3,400

50:15

cheaper, respectively?

50:18

I don't I don't know. I just It's so

50:20

hard to want to go to Lloyd.

50:23

There's just too big of a gap in price.

50:25

There's not a big enough gap in fantasy

50:26

projections. There's not really that big

50:28

of like not a big enough gap in

50:30

ownership that it's like, "Okay, well,

50:31

at least I'm paying up to be like super

50:33

contrarian." I mean, Chris Brooks is 3%

50:36

more owned. Caleb Johnson didn't even

50:38

sneak over 20. So, yeah. Lloyd feels

50:42

like about as no-go of a no-go for me.

50:45

So, he's due for two TDs, obviously.

50:48

>> And I can tell you this, too. There

50:50

there there will be people like say

50:52

Lloyd ends up having a two touchdown

50:54

game or a big game, right? And there

50:56

there will people that come back and

50:58

say, "Hey, these idiots said not to to

51:00

take Lloyd today." Perfectly fine by me.

51:03

But I wanted I just want you to know he

51:05

is objectively a

51:07

>> a subpar play today on that price at

51:10

that price point. I there it's not an

51:12

opinion.

51:13

He's just not a good play. We're still

51:16

getting 10%. We're matching the field

51:18

fine, but Marshon Lloyd is not a good

51:20

play at that price point, especially

51:22

given given the workload split that

51:23

we've seen over the last two weeks,

51:25

particularly last week.

51:26

>> I think he's the least justifiable play

51:28

of anybody on the slate.

51:30

>> I actually think you're right. Well,

51:31

let's look at the sim ROI. What do you

51:33

say?

51:34

>> That is a very big negative number. Oh,

51:38

and another thing as I pull this up,

51:40

Chris Brooks ran 12 routes last week to

51:44

Marshon Lloyd seven. So Lloyd couldn't

51:46

even beat him out uh in in routes run in

51:49

the passing game, which makes it even

51:51

worse. Brooks has 22 routes on the

51:54

season. Marshon Lloyd has 14. So even

51:56

there, even there he looks worse. And

51:59

that I mean that's just that's bad. So

52:01

let's see. Simulated player ROI. Falcons

52:04

are number one. We we brought them down

52:07

a little bit, rightfully so. Bejian,

52:09

>> you're on the captain.

52:10

>> Oh, okay. Yeah, you're right. Bejon at

52:14

basically zero was crazy at that price.

52:17

All right.

52:17

>> Yeah.

52:18

>> Simulated player ROI. Still Falcons.

52:20

Charlie Warner. This doesn't mean you

52:22

jam them. It does just means that from

52:24

an ROI perspective, they were in some of

52:26

these big winning lineups.

52:29

Mark Redmond. Okay. See, the reason this

52:32

is interesting is because I don't know a

52:36

damn thing about Mark Redmond

52:39

whatsoever.

52:40

>> I It sounds like a relief pitcher.

52:42

>> He played 34 snaps last week. So, all

52:46

right, I get it. Jordan Love, let's see

52:48

the bottom.

52:52

Zachariah Branch, Brian Robinson, Austin

52:56

Hooper. Okay, so Marshon Lloyd minus 26%

53:00

simmed ROI.

53:01

>> Worst worst option of anybody getting

53:04

ownership

53:05

>> and also worst owner worst option of

53:07

anyone on Green Bay.

53:09

>> Yep.

53:11

Chris Brooks noticeably better. Caleb

53:15

Johnson noticeably better. So yeah, this

53:18

is this is just the way you have to you

53:21

don't have to play it this way, but this

53:23

is just the way the way it is. uh

53:25

leverage and then anything else you want

53:27

to look at before we go. Usually you

53:28

have some some good data points to to

53:31

pull up. But from an exposure

53:32

standpoint, our leverage,

53:35

most leveraged spot is pitts in the

53:38

flex, Josh. Then Falcons, even though we

53:41

capped them at 30, well, brought him

53:43

down to 30. Pennix at 8% positive

53:46

leverage. And then Chris Brooks at six

53:49

and London at five. Five.

53:51

>> From a positive leverage perspective, I

53:53

love those four names. So do I.

53:56

>> Wouldn't want to change anything there.

53:58

>> So do I. Uh

54:00

>> and I don't hate that either. Bejian at

54:02

50 captain.

54:04

>> No. No. And we're going to talk about

54:06

it, but craft captain tonight. Pits

54:08

captain looks good. Yeah. I actually

54:10

think both of those guys and Ree, you're

54:13

not saying anything that we're not

54:15

getting to. Granted, we're getting to a

54:17

ton of Bejon a captain. Literally 50%.

54:20

But we are getting to pits. I know 4%

54:24

isn't a ton, but it's something. We're

54:26

getting the 3% craft. When I look at

54:28

stuff like this and I see these low

54:30

numbers, but numbers that still exist,

54:32

it tells me, all right, if I were to run

54:34

some uniques and and drag it further

54:38

down our top sim ROI lineups, you

54:41

probably get a little bit more of those

54:42

guys. So, we're not getting a ton, but

54:45

they also look perfectly fine. Like if

54:47

you ended up with pits and crafted a

54:49

single entry, it's not actually a crazy

54:52

thing to do.

54:53

>> Not at all.

54:55

Those I mean outside of just knocking

54:57

back that uh the defense slightly, like

55:02

pretty much everything else that came

55:04

out of there was not too extreme for me.

55:06

>> now that I like a lot more.

55:08

>> So all I did was run two uniques. I

55:11

didn't do anything other than that.

55:13

>> It it brought pits up from four to

55:15

eight%. They brought Craft up only one

55:18

additional lineup, but that's still 12%

55:20

of those guys. More Watson, a little bit

55:24

more London, a little bit more Matthew

55:26

Golden. So, um I I love these games,

55:29

man. I love these type of slates.

55:34

Let's see. Where's Falcons D there?

55:37

Okay, they came down a little bit. We

55:38

could probably bump their uh negative

55:41

boost at the flex up slightly now that

55:44

we have the uniques.

55:47

Yeah, you're right. I mean, you I could

55:48

probably just change that 5%.

55:51

>> You mean 20? Oh, you mean like move

55:54

>> bump it up 5% to 15.

55:59

>> You go to 10.

56:02

>> Yeah. 26.

56:03

>> Yeah.

56:05

It just shows you that a lot of those

56:07

really high SIM ROI lineups did have

56:09

Falcons defense.

56:10

>> Yep. Because look,

56:13

>> now we're back to 30

56:15

>> with zero boost. With zero ROI, negative

56:19

boost or zero negative or boost at all,

56:21

29%. So you actually don't need to do

56:24

anything there.

56:25

>> Yeah, just that's how you know change

56:27

that dial a little bit. Switch from

56:29

uniques to the negative ROI boost. You

56:32

kind of get in the same spot either

56:34

direction, but you know, more than one

56:36

way to skin a cat. We've learned

56:38

>> that is true. Hey, uh, last thing I want

56:42

to talk about.

56:43

No, Jaden Reed today. He was was taken

56:46

to the hospital.

56:48

>> It's probably you're you're looking at

56:50

Sky Moore, Bo Melton. They're by default

56:54

just guys that we probably get to a

56:56

little bit of by default, right? Like

56:58

Sky Moore, we have 10%. Uh, Bo Melton,

57:02

we have 6%. I'm gonna I'll put it to you

57:05

guys like this, and I don't want to

57:06

spend too much time on it. While I

57:08

totally understand wanting to take some

57:10

chances on those guys and we will have

57:12

lineups with them because they're going

57:14

to be active tonight and there's a good

57:17

chance that they do get some

57:18

opportunities. Bo Melton is 1,200 in the

57:21

flex. Skyore is 2400. They're cheap.

57:25

This is also one of those slates that

57:27

because Bejon is the only true big-time

57:30

payup option, you don't need to jam

57:33

these type of guys.

57:34

>> No. No. They don't strike me as guys you

57:37

should have much more than a tiny bit of

57:43

just seems overly risky for not a ton of

57:46

return. Yeah. But also if if you were

57:49

asking me like would you rather just go

57:51

cheap pass catchers for Green Bay or

57:53

cheap pass catchers for Atlanta? Um, I I

57:56

think I'd probably go with Green Bay

58:00

here because like are we getting any

58:03

Chris Blair?

58:06

>> I doubt it.

58:07

>> I mean, I I like the I think it's

58:09

interesting to go to those like this new

58:12

who's going to step up pass catcher for

58:13

the Packers instead of trying to figure

58:15

out their backfield, too.

58:18

>> That's That's another good point. Yeah.

58:20

And we're getting

58:21

>> We're flipping a three-sided coin

58:22

already trying to figure out who's going

58:24

to be that guy,

58:24

>> right? We're getting 6% Alamade Zakias.

58:28

We're getting

58:30

1% Blair. There's really not not much to

58:34

go with there. I would rather just take

58:36

the shot on Sky Moore or Bo Melton who's

58:38

had, you know, some decent opt

58:41

opportunities in the past when there

58:42

have been injuries. But clearly Matthew

58:45

Golden, Christian Watson are the two

58:47

best looking options alongside Tucker

58:49

Craft in that game and or in that side.

58:52

Even more so because you just mentioned

58:54

it, Green Bay doesn't have a run game

58:56

right now or or or and they can't run

58:59

block. And then on the other side,

59:01

Bejian, Pittz, and London are your clear

59:05

top three options. And The Sims at times

59:08

says, you know, maybe just go down to

59:10

Charlie Warner or something like that.

59:13

>> I'm excited to play this one tonight.

59:15

>> I I love these slates, man. I love these

59:18

slates. They're fun. Yeah,

59:20

>> I got all that FanDuel cash that I could

59:22

flip over into showdown.

59:24

>> Yep. Yep.

59:26

>> I didn't $500,000 last week.

59:29

>> Uh, are you playing Packers D with all

59:31

the Sky Moore lineups?

59:34

>> You could. Yeah, I'm sure it's I'll end

59:35

up, but I'm not getting a lot of Oh,

59:37

with all of them? No, you don't have to,

59:39

but it it certainly doesn't hurt if

59:41

you're looking for the correlation. Um,

59:43

but we'll be back for Live Before Lock.

59:45

Make sure to stick around for that one

59:47

leading up to tonight. We'll start it

59:49

off at uh 7:15 Eastern. Take you all the

59:52

way up to lock. I think it's Ben and me

59:54

tonight. So, we got you covered. Don't

59:57

forget, you want to get the Sims for

59:58

free, you can do it down below. You want

59:59

to take 10% off any subscription, do it

01:00:01

down below. Uh and last thing before we

01:00:04

get out of here, make sure that when you

01:00:08

play these contests, make sure you're

01:00:10

you're using the stochastic avatar

01:00:12

because if you do this,

01:00:15

>> all you have to do is finish. I say all

01:00:17

you have to do, but it's true because if

01:00:19

you finish top, you're trying to win

01:00:20

anyway, you finish top three in a field

01:00:22

of 5,000 or more, even if it's in like

01:00:25

the nickel contest or the dime package,

01:00:28

you're getting a free month of Sims max.

01:00:32

And then if you do it again in a

01:00:33

calendar year, you get another month

01:00:35

plus another week. And then the third

01:00:37

time in a calendar year, you're getting

01:00:38

all access. Also, we have the awesome

01:00:41

ring in a spinning display case to

01:00:43

commemorate your win. It's sick. the the

01:00:46

stochcastic hall of fame win ring for

01:00:48

any 20k plus win. Um, I don't know. To

01:00:51

me, it's a no-brainer because all you're

01:00:53

doing is throwing an avatar up there and

01:00:55

it's truly a win-win situation where

01:00:58

you're going to be doing this anyway.

01:01:01

>> It's an absolute no-brainer that again

01:01:03

costs you nothing at all. Just use the

01:01:06

avatar. Clearly, you see it at the top

01:01:08

of contests.

01:01:10

>> They're at the top of many contests. Um,

01:01:13

and you can just speak from the people

01:01:16

that have won showdowns recently. Uh,

01:01:18

yeah, quite ridiculous, dude. Quite

01:01:21

ridiculous in a lot of these. This

01:01:24

Collie Poston took down like a 100K in

01:01:26

in this showdown just the other day.

01:01:28

>> Not too shabby.

01:01:30

>> Our boy Low Stories took down chopped

01:01:33

with our boy Jake Hari in Flicker.

01:01:36

>> And then week one, where was the other?

01:01:39

Here's another showdown win. 36,000.

01:01:42

Another showdown win, 15,000 with the

01:01:44

Avatar. So, yeah, easy to do. And do

01:01:47

ties count? Yes, but you can't tie with

01:01:50

more than two people. Otherwise, we

01:01:51

wouldn't have a company anymore. So,

01:01:55

if you tie with more than two, it

01:01:57

doesn't count. If it's two people tying

01:01:59

in you, it does count. So, it's that

01:02:02

simple. And uh how do you upload the

01:02:04

avatar? Easy. Just download it to your

01:02:07

computer.

01:02:08

And you can probably do it to your

01:02:10

phone. You you could do it to your

01:02:11

phone, too. You probably just save it in

01:02:15

>> and then change it on DraftKings or

01:02:16

FanDuel. Anyway, appreciate you guys

01:02:19

hanging out. Fun show as always. We'll

01:02:20

be back later today.

01:02:22

>> Follow Josh at Josh Ingamman on Twitter.

01:02:24

Me at Lafy Lu Ghy. And you ever have any

01:02:28

questions about using the tools or

01:02:30

anything else,

01:02:32

>> just hit us up. Anything before we go?

01:02:35

>> I got nothing. I'm excited for this one.

01:02:36

This is a much more fun slate to me than

01:02:39

from a DFS perspective than what we had

01:02:40

in the first two weeks.

01:02:41

>> Could not agree more.

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